May. 30th, 2008

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I have been re-reading my Usenet posts from 1999-2003 recently (it's an odd hobby, but it brings me comfort), and I came across this from 3 November 2002:

If the administration has no idea what to do after invading Iraq, they shouldn't be invading Iraq. I believe that the administration knows exactly what to do after invading Iraq; in fact, I am sure that the administration has at least fifteen mutually incompatible plans for what to do after invading Iraq, and will proceed according to at least ten of them.


I didn't actually guess the worst--I had no idea exactly how bad the Iraq occupation would be. The best I can say is that at least my nightmare scenario has not yet come true:

It is not difficult at all to imagine a worse scenario than Saddam Hussein or his sons controlling some nuclear weapons. Here's one: The US invades Iraq, leading to a radical political whiplash throughout Western and Southern Asia, which leads to real revolutionary nutcases getting ahold of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and using them.

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